Notre Dame
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
57  Kelly Curran SR 19:49
145  Alexa Aragon SR 20:14
242  Molly Seidel SO 20:29
281  Hannah Eckstein JR 20:34
345  Gabby Gonzales JR 20:43
461  Emily Frydrych JR 20:53
753  Sydni Meunier SO 21:17
965  Gabrielle Thivierge FR 21:31
968  Danielle Aragon SO 21:31
983  McKinzie Schulz SR 21:33
1,197  Karen Lesiewicz JR 21:45
National Rank #24 of 340
Great Lakes Region Rank #4 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 81.8%
Most Likely Finish 24th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.1%
Top 10 at Nationals 1.1%
Top 20 at Nationals 22.0%


Regional Champion 0.2%
Top 5 in Regional 69.1%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Kelly Curran Alexa Aragon Molly Seidel Hannah Eckstein Gabby Gonzales Emily Frydrych Sydni Meunier Gabrielle Thivierge Danielle Aragon McKinzie Schulz Karen Lesiewicz
Notre Dame Invitational (Blue) 10/04 736 19:55 20:08 20:42 20:39 21:06 21:31 21:56 22:23
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/19 605 19:32 20:25 20:21 20:24 20:39 21:13 21:27 21:27
ACC Championships 11/01 662 20:02 20:20 20:29 20:15 20:48 20:59 21:15 20:52 21:13 21:45
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/15 555 19:28 20:02 20:23 20:36 20:30 21:00 21:50
NCAA Championship 11/23 846 20:07 20:15 20:37 22:01 21:33 21:13 21:44





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 81.8% 23.1 556 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.7 1.7 2.5 3.3 4.2 4.7 5.6 6.4 6.0 7.4 7.0 6.1 5.8 5.1 4.2 3.8 2.3
Region Championship 100% 5.0 154 0.2 1.2 4.6 33.9 29.2 20.0 7.7 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kelly Curran 95.6% 58.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.9
Alexa Aragon 82.0% 119.4 0.0 0.0
Molly Seidel 81.8% 161.7
Hannah Eckstein 81.8% 176.0
Gabby Gonzales 81.8% 196.5
Emily Frydrych 81.8% 216.8
Sydni Meunier 81.8% 242.9


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kelly Curran 9.0 3.8 4.6 5.0 5.3 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.0 5.9 6.3 5.8 5.4 5.0 4.7 3.7 3.4 3.7 2.8 2.0 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5
Alexa Aragon 23.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.7 2.8 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.7 4.9 4.9 5.1
Molly Seidel 33.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.7 2.5 3.0
Hannah Eckstein 37.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.5
Gabby Gonzales 45.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.5
Emily Frydrych 57.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Sydni Meunier 86.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.2% 100.0% 0.2 0.2 1
2 1.2% 100.0% 1.2 1.2 2
3 4.6% 100.0% 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.6 3
4 33.9% 97.8% 1.5 2.5 3.8 5.2 4.7 3.6 3.3 2.4 1.9 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.7 33.2 4
5 29.2% 89.9% 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 2.1 2.5 2.9 26.2 5
6 20.0% 68.8% 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.7 6.2 13.8 6
7 7.7% 32.7% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 5.2 2.5 7
8 2.4% 4.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.3 0.1 8
9 0.7% 0.7 9
10 0.1% 0.1 10
11 0.0% 0.0 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 81.8% 0.2 1.2 0.4 1.8 3.3 5.4 7.6 8.4 8.2 8.4 7.7 7.9 8.4 6.1 6.7 18.2 1.4 80.4




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Cornell 80.6% 1.0 0.8
Vanderbilt 73.9% 1.0 0.7
Texas A&M 56.7% 1.0 0.6
Harvard 37.3% 1.0 0.4
Wisconsin 35.7% 1.0 0.4
Arizona State 33.7% 1.0 0.3
SMU 33.5% 1.0 0.3
Boston College 31.0% 2.0 0.6
Florida 29.1% 1.0 0.3
BYU 9.3% 1.0 0.1
Texas 8.2% 1.0 0.1
Duke 6.3% 2.0 0.1
Georgia 6.1% 1.0 0.1
North Carolina St. 4.8% 2.0 0.1
Baylor 3.8% 1.0 0.0
UTSA 2.6% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 1.5% 1.0 0.0
Lamar 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Lipscomb 0.7% 1.0 0.0
UC Davis 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.0% 2.0 0.0
Weber State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Stony Brook 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 5.0
Minimum 1.0
Maximum 12.0